• 19.06.2012

The housing market collapses, buying and selling of houses -20 percent in the first quarter of 2012

The data released today contrasts starkly with the last two quarterly surveys, which instead had been a slight signs of recovery. Please note, however, to correctly interpret the situation: The Agency has relied contracts from January to March this year, and then collapsed and most of the really depends on decisions taken at the end of 2011.

The reasons for the collapse. As observed by the technicians of the Territory "transcribed the collapse of sales in the first quarter of 2012, stems from a crisis in the market over the past few months of 2011 and is widely explained by the main macroeconomic indicators refer to that period." What? The GDP declined by 0.5%, unemployment rising to 9.6%, household spending on durable goods fell by 7%, the APR on the loans taken over by Bank of Italy to 4.27% (a point more than in April 2011). Not to mention the psychological effect of the boom spreads last fall, which may have led to wait for better times even those who had money to spend. Certainly, the GDP at -1.4% recorded by ISTAT in the first three months of 2012 is a very encouraging signal for the next few months.

The effect IMU. What you may not have weighed on the collapse in sales - if not in small part - is the introduction IMU, the new municipal tax-saving maneuver provided by Italy, the DL 201, December 6, 2011. A rule came when many deeds for the first months of 2012 had already been scheduled. Again, the impact on the market of new tax can only be fully evaluated in the coming months. Just as we must carefully measure the effects on prices in recent years, property prices have shown a lot more "hard" market, showing a resistance due to the lack of investment alternatives for potential investors, with a fall so hard for transactions, something could change.

The other sectors. The apartment is about 45% of the market and drag down even garage sales (-17.4%), but also in other areas the trend is strongly negative, so that the average figure for the quarter was a decrease of 17.8 percent. The segment of the tertiary sector (2618 deeds) lost 19.6% of transactions, followed by commercial (6521, -17.6%), while the one contained in a downturn is the most productive sector (2,279, -7, 9%).